How Low Juice Saves You Money

Betting Tips
Typography

By Ray Monohan

It’s a conversation that started a long time ago that companies like BetOnline propelled to new heights: Low Juice or Big Bonus.

We know what bonuses are all about and their many varieties, so now we’ll take a look at low juice and determine why it’s a winner.

Low juice is kind of like having a lower interest rate on your mortgage. Unlike a bonus, it doesn’t give you cash in hand upfront, it’s not particularly sexy and it takes a keener mind to understand that it’s in fact a really good feature.

Sometimes, the best way to understand it is to see it, so here’s our basic example of how it works.

Let’s say Pete Rose and Tim Donaghy are betting on games (allegedly). The best way to do that these days is to do it online, so a couple of accounts are opened up.

Player No. 1 decides to deposit $1000 and take advantage of a 15% cash bonus provided. He’s now sitting with a balance of $1150, but he’s at a regular sportsbook where there is no low juice.

Player No 2 decides to deposit $1000 but he’s playing at a book that doesn’t have a deposit bonus, but in turn offers low juice. On all spread lines where it’s normally -110 for Player No. 1, he’s got -105.

Using the basic probabilities that there are two outcomes to each game, we can roughly guesstimate that each player is going to win and lose 50% of the team. For simplicity, let’s say each player is betting to win $100 per game.

Here’s a look at where the two players would be after 20 bets.

Player No. 1

Initial Balance: $1150

20 wins: +$2000

20 losses: -2200

Total: $950

Player No. 2

Initial Balance: $1000

20 wins: +$2000

20 losses: -2100

Total: $900

As you can see, after just 20 bets, the difference between the players is down to $50. Now think about the fact that some bettors place four bets or more on any given NFL Sunday, which means that if you throw in basketball and college football, 20 bets might only equal one week of betting.

Let’s flesh this out and exaggerate the numbers just to really hammer it home. Let’s see what happens after 100 bets:

Player No. 1

Initial Balance: $1150

100 wins: +$10000

100 losses: -11000

Total: $150

Player No. 2

Initial Balance: $1000

100 wins: +$10000

100 losses: -10500

Total: $500

The difference only grows the more the action accumulates.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind. First off, not all low juice sportsbooks are made the same. Companies like Pinnacle Sports offer -104 lines on football spreads, which means the low juice will pay off sooner. But companies like 5Dimes offer -105 on low juice accounts, so it would go as our example indicated. Other books offer -106 or -108, so the lower juice isn’t as strong of a benefit. The bottom line, though, is that the lower the juice, the better for the bettor.

But one other thing that’s important to note is that in this example, we’re assuming that low juice only factors on losses. That is to say that low juice only comes into play in one end of the equation. That’s the best way to keep this example nice and clean but following this theory, lower juice has a smaller impact on winning bettors.

Let’s take that last example and instead of using the regular probabilities (50% wins/50% losses) and say that our player Tim Donaghy (allegedly) has an inside edge and can win 60% of the time. Here’s how he’d look placing the same bets at different sportsbooks:

No Low Juice

Initial Balance: $1150

120 wins: +12000

80 losses: -8800

Total: $4350

Low Juice

Initial Balance: $1000

120 wins: +12000

80 losses: -8400

Total: $4600

As you can see, low juice is the winner once again. That’s why low juice is worth your time.

Some low juice books are fairly drab and don’t offer a whole lot in the way of a fun betting experience, but the bottom line is if you’re a sharp, low juice saves you money in the long run. If you have access to this type of a sportsbook, then it’s worth a look.