Patience Required For The Ultimate NFL Betting System
By Ray Monohan
Most bettors won’t have the patience for this system, but to be quite honest, it’s one of the most successful ones out there. I say they won’t have the patience for it because most handicappers play at least one bet per NFL Sunday and most do multiple. This system has maybe one bet per year and sometimes even goes seasons without.
The System: Bet against NFL teams that have scored 30 or more points in two straight games while allowing 10 or less in the last two, assuming they are playing a non-divisional opponent in their third game.
The Logic: This system is based on the fact that NFL teams that have rolled in two straight games tend to overlook their next opponent. The key here is the non-divisional game as when teams go outside their division – or conference – they sometimes don’t bring the same effort and preparation that they would against a divisional foe.
The other key here is that the spreads tend to become overvalued on teams that consistently blow their opponents out. We see this time and time again on a smaller scale where a team like the Green Bay Packers in 2011-12 starts the year rolling through everyone, but starts to fade in the second half of the season. The more bettors pile on the spreads, the more the odds makers raise the numbers to compensate. Eventually, the spread is high enough that the underdog covers.
The Track Record: The system is 12-1 since 1989. For a couple examples of the system situations we can look back to 2009 where the San Francisco 49ers were a massive 13-points underdog against the Indianapolis Colts in Indy and won outright 18-14. Or back in 2007, the Buffalo Bills were a 10-point underdog versus the Dallas Cowboys and they nearly won the game. They led the entire way until Nick Folk hit a game-winning 53-yard field goal to edge the Bills 25-24.