NBA Betting System: Winning Percentage Differential System Part II (Underdogs)
By Ray Monohan
In part one of the system, we talked about the value of betting favorites. The extension of that strategy is taking a look at the same winning percentage differential and taking advantage of it when it points heavily towards the underdog.
Let’s have a closer look how it breaks down along with a refresher on the formula.
The System: Just as in the first part, the winning percentage differential is calculated the same. Take the bigger of the two teams’ winning percentages and subtract the smaller one from the bigger one. Take the number that you’re left with and divide it by 20 to get our projected point spread on the game.
This time, though, what we’re going to look for is if there is value on the underdog. How we do that is we look for a significant discrepancy from our projected line to the real line.
For example, if the Los Angeles Lakers are hosting the Charlotte Bobcats and the Lakers have a winning percentage of .600 and the Bobcats have a winning percentage of .500, then our projected spread on the game is five. Let’s say that the Lakers are on the road, which makes them a two-point favorite (remember to subtract or add three points for home-court advantage). For argument’s sake, let’s say the real like is the Bobcats -5 at home, then there’s some serious value with the Lakers. Or going the other way, if the real line is Lakers -7, then we can clearly see a significant differential on the line in favor of the underdog.
In these cases, we look for a differential of eight or more to take the underdog.
The Logic: Again, this system makes plenty of sense. You are what your record says you are, so there’s no hiding in this system. This formula examines how teams perform in the wins and losses category, converts it to a spread and narrows down whether there is value one way or the other on the betting line.
The Track Record: People tend to have looser guidelines for this system, so it would have to be tracked individually to find out just how successful it is.