MLB Betting System: Cash In On Home Underdogs With Left-Handed Pitchers
By Ray Monohan
Baseball is a game built on numbers, so if there was ever a sport where betting systems were more than just functional – and were to be successful more often than not – it would be baseball. We’ve bandied about home underdogs many times across the sports landscape and the appeal of betting them, and recently we’ve come across a successful MLB betting system that we have loosely stuck to in previous years.
The System: Bet on teams playing at home that are listed as an underdog when they have a left-handed starting pitcher on the mound.
The Logic: Left-handed pitchers have extra value in the sport of baseball since there are fewer of them and batters aren’t as used to seeing them. Since they don’t see them as much, hitters often times have a harder time hitting them. In short, that’s why veteran left-handers will have value to a pitching staff well into their forties while the lifespan of a similar-caliber right-hander won’t be as valuable. See: John Franco/Fernando Valenzuela.
For many people, betting home underdogs is a system in itself in most sports as home-field advantage is an important edge and getting any team at home as a home dog could be considered good value on its own. But this system ties together two different advantages and essentially parlays them together.
While many systems require the conditions to be just right with the planets aligned and the solar system in order, that’s not the case here. You don’t have to wait for a team to lose four straight by at least four runs, a team to convert at least two double-plays in their previous game or uncover any other bizarre situation.
Find a team that’s a home underdog on the moneylines starting a left-handed pitcher and you’re good to go.
Note: In systems like this, you’ll want to shop around for low juice sportsbooks to get the best value on the moneylines as can severely increase or decrease profits.
The Track Record: In 2011, home underdogs that had a left-handed starting pitcher on the mound went an impressive 119-114. Sure, it doesn’t seem like a great overall record but when you consider that 44.53 units of profits were pumped out, the system was definitely a big success.
Looking even further back, left-handed home dogs are 313-318 for a profit of 80.58 units over the last three years.